For the first time in three years, US greenhouse gas emissions have increased, reversing a trend of decline. A frigid start to 2025, combined with surging energy demands from data centers and cryptocurrency mining, pushed emissions up by 2.4% – outpacing even economic growth. The rebound is driven by both increased fossil fuel use and a slowdown in the shift to cleaner energy sources.
The Role of Extreme Weather and Fossil Fuel Demand
The severe cold snap at the beginning of 2025 led to a nearly 7% increase in residential heating fuel consumption. This spike was primarily met by natural gas and other fossil fuels, as many US homes remain dependent on these sources. Simultaneously, coal consumption surged by 13% to satisfy growing electricity demands, partly due to higher natural gas prices making coal more competitive.
The key takeaway: The US energy grid responded to the increased demand by relying on both renewables and fossil fuels, but the high cost of gas incentivized a return to coal.
Data Centers and Cryptocurrency: Emerging Drivers of Emissions
A significant portion of the emissions increase is attributed to the expansion of data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations, particularly in states like Texas and the Ohio Valley. These energy-intensive industries require massive amounts of electricity, contributing directly to higher fossil fuel consumption.
This trend matters because: The demand from these sectors is expected to remain strong, suggesting that emissions from data centers and cryptocurrency could continue to rise unless offset by aggressive decarbonization efforts.
Global Context: US Trends Diverge from China and India
While the US saw a rise in coal use, both China and India reduced their reliance on coal for electricity generation, increasing wind and solar energy capacity instead. China’s coal use dropped by 1.6%, and India’s by 3%, highlighting diverging energy policies.
Why this contrast is significant: The US is lagging behind major global economies in transitioning to cleaner energy sources, indicating a policy gap that could worsen emissions in the long term.
Policy Impacts and Future Outlook
Analysts from the Rhodium Group suggest that the Trump administration’s policies did not meaningfully contribute to the emissions increase in 2025. However, others argue that the administration’s support for fossil fuel extraction and exports—including natural gas—played a role in keeping prices high and making coal economically viable.
The larger picture: Regardless of policy influence, the underlying demand from data centers, cryptocurrency, and extreme weather conditions is likely to sustain higher emissions unless significant changes are made to energy infrastructure and consumption patterns.
Despite the increase, solar power experienced a 34% growth spurt in the US last year, marking the fastest rate since 2017. Transportation emissions remained relatively flat due to the rising adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles, with hybrid sales up 25%. However, these gains were insufficient to offset the overall increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
In conclusion: The rise in US greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 is a worrying sign, driven by a confluence of factors including extreme weather, fossil fuel demand, and the booming energy needs of data centers and cryptocurrency. This trend underscores the urgency of accelerating the transition to cleaner energy sources and implementing effective climate policies.
